TFR Team Review · Oct 30, 2026
The Long Game Dynasty League
ToastyBuns49Dynasty12 teams1QB · 2RB · 3WR · 1TE · 3FLEX · 1SFRecord 4-10
Scout Team of the Year
5th of 12 by value|4-10
Data drivesdynasties
Team state
ONE YEAR RELOAD
Now: RELOAD
2 yrs: CONTEND
Overall roster grade
6.0
About average roster value
Overall grade · 6.0 of 10Everything on the roster added up — players and draft picks at this league's values — and set against the league's average roster. An average roster lands around 5.5; 10 is the richest a roster gets.Roster shape
WELL ROUNDED
Best WR 4th
Worst QB 10th
Positional grades
League rank · of 12QBQuarterback · 10th of 1210th of 12 in quarterback trade value — what the room is worth to move, weighted toward the men who start. It is not a count of points. 2 clear 14.1 PPG for 2 starting spots, so there is nothing startable behind the lineup.The fuller the gem, the higher it ranks — a full gem is 1st in the league.
RBRunning Back · 9th of 129th of 12 in running back trade value — what the room is worth to move, weighted toward the men who start. It is not a count of points. 2 clear 8.2 PPG for 2 starting spots, so there is nothing startable behind the lineup.The fuller the gem, the higher it ranks — a full gem is 1st in the league.
WRWide Receiver · 4th of 124th of 12 in receiver trade value — what the room is worth to move, weighted toward the men who start. It is not a count of points. That is value, not depth: 5 clear 7.4 PPG for 5 starting spots, so the rank is the men who start rather than anything behind them.The fuller the gem, the higher it ranks — a full gem is 1st in the league.
TETight End · 8th of 128th of 12 in tight end trade value — what the room is worth to move, weighted toward the men who start. It is not a count of points. 2 clear 7.1 PPG for 2 starting spots, so there is nothing startable behind the lineup.The fuller the gem, the higher it ranks — a full gem is 1st in the league.
FLEXFlex · 8th of 128th of 12 in the trade value left over once your dedicated slots are filled — the pool your 4 flex spots draw from. Neither of your 2 bench flex bodies clears the bar.The fuller the gem, the higher it ranks — a full gem is 1st in the league.
DEPTHDepth · 8th of 128th of 12 in the trade value of everyone past your starters and flex — the bench you would trade from, not the bench you would start. Your lineup itself ranks 9th of 12 in weekly points.The fuller the gem, the higher it ranks — a full gem is 1st in the league.
Best position
WR 4th
Top third of 12
4th of 12 in receiver trade value — what the room is worth to move, weighted toward the men who start. It is not a count of points. That is value, not depth: 5 clear 7.4 PPG for 5 starting spots, so the rank is the men who start rather than anything behind them.Biggest gap
QB 10th
Bottom third of 12
10th of 12 in quarterback trade value — what the room is worth to move, weighted toward the men who start. It is not a count of points. 2 clear 14.1 PPG for 2 starting spots, so there is nothing startable behind the lineup.Production share
8.1%
vs league avg 8.3%
Value share
8.7%
vs league avg 8.3%
Draft capital
5 1sts · 4 2nds
2 year outlook
RELOAD→CONTEND
Roster workspace
11 starters · 1QB · 2RB · 3WR · 1TE · 3FLEX · 1SFProjected pointsFilled with the best available player at each slot on expected points per game. Tyler Shough is on bye in week 8, so he sits — this is this week's total. The season projection is 139.0 a week, 9th of 12.128.7Starting lineup
SlotPlayerRankPPG
QB
Baker MayfieldTB · 31QB2118.9
Baker MayfieldTB · 31QB2118.9RB
Chase BrownCIN · 26RB1113.7
Chase BrownCIN · 26RB1113.7RB
Quinshon JudkinsCLE · 23RB1711.5
Quinshon JudkinsCLE · 23RB1711.5WR
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · 27WR415.0
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · 27WR415.0WR
Parker WashingtonJAX · 24WR1710.3
Parker WashingtonJAX · 24WR1710.3WR
Michael WilsonARI · 26WR3010.1
Michael WilsonARI · 26WR3010.1TE
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · 22TE712.2
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · 22TE712.2FLEX
Rome OdunzeCHI · 24WR339.4
Rome OdunzeCHI · 24WR339.4FLEX
Cade OttonTB · 27TE339.0
Cade OttonTB · 27TE339.0FLEX
KC Concepcion Jr.CLE · 22WR288.4
KC Concepcion Jr.CLE · 22WR288.4SF
Tua TagovailoaATL · 28QB3810.3
Tua TagovailoaATL · 28QB3810.3Projected points · 11 startersFilled with the best available player at each slot on expected points per game. Tyler Shough is on bye in week 8, so he sits — this is this week's total. The season projection is 139.0 a week, 9th of 12.128.7
Roster
Quarterbacks
5
Tyler ShoughNO · 27QB10HOLDTFR board · HOLD 5/10Was a 10, the secret's out… STILL a great asset, but now he's lowkey a flip sell, or hold long termBaker MayfieldTB · 31QB21BUYTFR board · BUY 3/10good chance to buy the dip for reloadersTua TagovailoaATL · 28QB38HOLDTFR board · HOLD 5/10On the Buy / Hold / Sell board without a written note.
Justin FieldsKC · 27QB42—
Joe FlaccoCIN · 41QB48—Running backs
8Chase BrownCIN · 26RB11SELLTFR board · SELL 5/10Good short term, starting to fade long term bc not performing yet price hasn’t changedQuinshon JudkinsCLE · 23RB17BUYTFR board · BUY 3/10Risky
Jonathon BrooksIRCAR · 23RB35SELLTFR board · SELL 5/10On the Buy / Hold / Sell board without a written note.
Dylan SampsonCLE · 22RB55BUYTFR board · BUY 2/10On the Buy / Hold / Sell board without a written note.
Tyjae SpearsTEN · 25RB57SELLTFR board · SELL 3/10On the Buy / Hold / Sell board without a written note.
Jaydon BluePHI · 22RB78—
Tyler GoodsonDAL · 25RB97—
Elijah MitchellPHI · 28RB103—Wide receivers
10Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · 27WR4BUYTFR board · BUY 1/10On the Buy / Hold / Sell board without a written note.Parker WashingtonJAX · 24WR17BUYTFR board · BUY 5/10On the Buy / Hold / Sell board without a written note.KC Concepcion Jr.CLE · 22WR28SELLTFR board · SELL 2/10Lowkey like selling highMichael WilsonARI · 26WR30BUYTFR board · BUY 5/10I like buying the dip if there is one here… but his value is going up…. When he's top 60 it's a good sellRome OdunzeCHI · 24WR33BUYTFR board · BUY 2/10On the Buy / Hold / Sell board without a written note.
Michael Pittman Jr.IRPIT · 29WR51HOLDTFR board · HOLD 5/10On the Buy / Hold / Sell board without a written note.
Chris BellMIA · 22WR58BUYTFR board · BUY 7/10Buy the dip
Caleb DouglasMIA · 23WR60—
Cyrus AllenKC · 23WR83HOLDTFR board · HOLD 5/10On the Buy / Hold / Sell board without a written note.
Brenen ThompsonLAC · 23WR107—Tight ends
4Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · 22TE7BUYTFR board · BUY 10/10Great long term asset, buy the dipCade OttonTB · 27TE33—
Mike GesickiCIN · 31TE46—
Tommy TrembleCAR · 26TE54—The TFR take
The written take is on its way — the Roadmap below is the full read on this roster in the meantime.
The Roadmap
Your plan
RELOADWhy reloadStarting lineup produces 9th of 12 — not enough to win now.Only 3% playoff odds despite this lineup. Some of the record is luck, but those games are already lost.Roster value ranks 5th of 12, and climbs once every player is aged two seasons forward.This reads your playoff odds — your record, your lineup and the schedule left — as well as your roster, and leans on them more as the season goes on. Four things decide this split: how many points your starting lineup scores today, how much trade value you hold, what that value looks like once every player is two years older, and how your core's age compares to the rest of the league. Producing now pushes you toward CONTEND, holding value that hasn't reached your lineup yet pushes you toward RELOAD, and being young without the production pushes you toward REBUILD. A close split means the roster genuinely hasn't picked a side.
Scout Team of the Year
70%
26%
CONTEND 4%RELOAD 70%REBUILD 26%
Lineup productionYour best legal starting lineup scores 139.0 points a week, 9th of 12 in the league. This is the half of the plan that wins games this season.
9thof 12
9thof 12
Team valueEverything on the roster — players and draft picks at this league's values — ranks 5th of 12. This is the half of the plan that wins the next three years.
5thof 12
5thof 12
Value × productionLeft to right is how much dynasty value you hold against an average team; bottom to top is how many points your best starting lineup scores. Every logo is a team in your league. Top right means both are working; bottom right means the assets are there but not in your lineup yet; top left means you are winning above your talent; bottom left means neither is working. The shaded band through the middle is within 8% of average either way — a team inside it reads as average on that axis.
Weekly production →
fragile contenderdominantrebuildfuture contenderLeague avgBBishop Sycamore10.4% of the league's value · 8.6% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%MMuddy Bucket Mafia9.6% of the league's value · 7.6% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%WWookiee of the Year9.4% of the league's value · 8.9% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%CCmonman059.2% of the league's value · 9.1% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%CClutchNorris248.3% of the league's value · 8.7% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%JJets backup squad7.9% of the league's value · 8.9% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%CChikks7.5% of the league's value · 8.9% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%CCedar Lake Falcons7.4% of the league's value · 8.6% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%JJDrizzy217.3% of the league's value · 8.9% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%BBBoyle257.2% of the league's value · 5.8% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%CCMCs ACL7.0% of the league's value · 7.9% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%SYouScout Team of the Year8.7% of the league's value · 8.1% of its productionAn even split is 8.3%
Dynasty value →AT PARITYYou hold +4% the trade value of an average team and score −2% its weekly points — you are the field. Nothing forces a direction: you can push either way without first fixing a structural problem.
Competitive windowOpens inside the next two seasonsRead off the roster now (reload) and the same roster with everyone two seasons older (contend).
ONE YEAR RELOADONE YEAR RELOADRight now this roster reads RELOAD — that's the same verdict as its game plan, blending what the starting lineup scores, how much value it holds and how old the core is. In two years, with every player aged forward, roster value lands in the top third of the league.
WELL ROUNDEDWELL ROUNDEDEvery starting spot lands between 4th and 9th — no top-3 strength, no bottom-3 hole.
AT PARITYAT PARITYYou hold +4% the trade value of an average team and score −2% its weekly points — you are the field. Nothing forces a direction: you can push either way without first fixing a structural problem.
The game plan
Your moves, most important first
RBSell
Chase Brown
Get a startable RB back
Shop Chase Brown before his value drops — and get a startable running back in return, the room has none to spare.
QBBuy
Fernando Mendoza
QB help · Bishop Sycamore
Buy Fernando Mendoza from Bishop Sycamore.Trade talks
Bishop Sycamore
Best fit for a deal
Open trade talks with Bishop Sycamore.
WRShop
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Young starter + a 1st
Take calls on Amon-Ra St. Brown — price him at a young starter plus a first.
Top move
Trade down at WR to fix TEYour receiver room is 26% above league average, 4th of 12, while TE is 42% below league average, 8th of 12. But you start 5 receivers a week once flex slots are filled and only 5 of yours clear 7.4 PPG, so you cannot simply send one out. Move your most expensive receiver and insist on a startable receiver coming back alongside the tight end — the value gap between the two is what pays for the upgrade. Bishop Sycamore is the roster shaped to take it.
Get a startable receiver back in the same deal — this room has no spare body.
Season odds
We rebuild your league's real schedule, project each team's weekly score from its best legal starting lineup, then play the rest of the season out a few thousand times with realistic week-to-week swing. These are the share of those seasons where you make the bracket and where you win it. Games already played are kept as results, so the numbers sharpen as the season goes.12-team league3%PlayoffsYou make the bracket in 3% of the simulated seasons.
0%TitleYou win it in 0% of them. In a 12-team league an average roster wins about 8%.
7.6Proj. winsYour average record across every simulated season, over 14 regular-season games.
9thProj. seedRanked by average finish across every simulated season, you come out 9th — that, not the win total, sets the seed. You average 7.6 wins over 14 games; the league average is exactly 7.0.
Positional balance
Your roster value vs. league averageEverything you own in each group, added up and set against what an average team in this 12-team league carries there. Right of the line means you hold more than you can start, so that is where a trade should come from. Left of the line is where incoming value should land. FLEX is the best of what is left after your starters; DEPTH is everything behind that.Biggest need
TE−42%
Add up everything you own at TE and it is worth +42% less than an average team here carries — 8th of 12. You start 2 tight ends a week once flex slots are filled, and you are filling those spots below league standard. This is where incoming value should land.Best strength
WR+26%
Add up everything you own at WR and it is worth +26% more than what an average team here carries — 4th of 12. You start 5 receivers a week once flex slots are filled and 5 of yours clear 7.4 PPG, so none of it is spare — this is quality to trade down from, not depth to ship out.← Deficit · buy hereLeague averageSurplus · trade from here →
-100%0%+100%
QB
Quarterback · −30% · 10th of 12Add up everything you own at QB and it is worth +30% less than an average team here carries — 10th of 12. You start 2 quarterbacks a week, and you are filling those spots below league standard. This is where incoming value should land.
−30%10thRB
Running Back · −26% · 9th of 12Add up everything you own at RB and it is worth +26% less than an average team here carries — 9th of 12. You start 2 running backs a week, and you are filling those spots below league standard. This is where incoming value should land.
−26%9thWR
Wide Receiver · +26% · 4th of 12Add up everything you own at WR and it is worth +26% more than what an average team here carries — 4th of 12. You start 5 receivers a week once flex slots are filled and 5 of yours clear 7.4 PPG, so none of it is spare — this is quality to trade down from, not depth to ship out.
+26%4thTE
Tight End · −42% · 8th of 12Add up everything you own at TE and it is worth +42% less than an average team here carries — 8th of 12. You start 2 tight ends a week once flex slots are filled, and you are filling those spots below league standard. This is where incoming value should land.
−42%8thFLEX
Flex · −18% · 8th of 128th of 12 in the trade value left over once your dedicated slots are filled — the pool your 4 flex spots draw from. Neither of your 2 bench flex bodies clears the bar.
−18%8thDEPTH
Depth · −14% · 8th of 128th of 12 in the trade value of everyone past your starters and flex — the bench you would trade from, not the bench you would start. Your lineup itself ranks 9th of 12 in weekly points.
−14%8thBench depth check
Can your bench survive an injury or a bye week?
0Coveredsurvives an injury1Thinone injury from trouble5Exposeda bye costs you a week
QB
QB depth5of 12teams pass
No startable backup
Tua Tagovailoa10.3 PPGneeds 14.1QB
RB
RB depth0of 12teams pass
No true RB injury cover
Tyjae Spears6.1 PPGneeds 8.2RB
WR
WR depth6of 12teams pass
Receiver bench is too thin
Caleb Douglas5.4 PPGneeds 7.4WR
TE
TE depth3of 12teams pass
No usable TE2
Mike Gesicki7.0 PPGneeds 7.1TE
FLEX
Flex depth4of 12teams pass
Bench flex is a weekly risk
Mike Gesicki7.0 PPGneeds 8.2TE
2ND FLEX
2nd flex1of 12teams pass
Second backup slot is fragile
Mike Gesicki7.0 PPGneeds 8.2TE
Roster diagnosis
Holding you back
3 problems
- 1DEPTHYour bench is short in 5 spotsYou start 2 quarterbacks and nobody behind them clears 14.1 PPG. In superflex that is the fastest way to lose a week. No back behind your starters clears 8.2 PPG. One injury and you are starting a handcuff. No receiver behind your starters clears 7.4 PPG. Most rosters carry one, and bye weeks punish you without it. Nobody behind your starting tight end clears 7.1 PPG. Not hard to fix, but you need one. Nothing on your bench clears 8.2 PPG. Bye weeks will cost you.
- 2TETE is a hole, not a position group−42%Your tight end room holds −42% of the trade value the average team carries there and ranks 8th of 12. There is no week where this group wins you the matchup.
- 3TFR is selling 4 of your playersKC Concepcion Jr., Chase Brown, Jonathon Brooks sit on the Buy/Hold/Sell board as sells. You are holding assets our own board says the market is overpaying for.
Your edge
3 advantages
- 1You already own 9 TFR buysHarold Fannin Jr., Dylan Sampson, Amon-Ra St. Brown are flagged BUY on our board. The market has not caught up to these yet — hold them.
- 2Your value is liquidYour top 3 assets hold 33% of your roster value. You have 10 players inside the top 90, plus 9 tradeable picks in the first two rounds — the average team in this 12-team league holds 7.5. You can make a real offer without gutting a starting spot.
- 3WRWR is your strongest room+26%Your receiver room holds +26% of what the average team carries there and ranks 4th of 12 — but you start 5 receivers a week once flex slots are filled and only 5 of them clear 7.4 PPG, so none of it is spare. The move here is trading quality down at WR and taking a startable body back, not shipping a WR out for nothing.
Trading difficultyHow easily this roster can make a deal. All your value in three studs scores low, because any trade opens a hole in your lineup. Value spread across seven or eight useful players — and picks in the first two rounds — scores high: you can make a real offer without gutting yourself.
How easy it is for you to make a deal
8.8/ 10
0–4.5Hard4.5–7Moderate7–9Easy9–10Very easy
10Top-90 players
Above avgLeague avg 7.5
91st & 2nd picks
Above avgLeague avg 4.0
33%Value in top 3
Spread outLeague avg 50%
0Movable bench
Below avgLeague avg 0.8
The verdict
Trading from this roster is easy.
- You can be aggressive in the trade market
- Your picks can pay for an upgrade
- No single trade guts this roster
Trade Ideas
These are alternative deals, not a sequence — you would do one of them, which is why the same piece can appear on more than one card. They come in four kinds. FILLS A NEED moves value from a room you're long in to the one you're short in. TIER UP sends one of your starters plus a piece for a better player at the same position — for the rooms that are already fine but could be better. YOUR BOARD comes from the Buy/Hold/Sell board: a player you're selling moved while someone will still pay, or a player you're buying asked for by name. SELL THE VET and WIN-NOW BUY are the trades where the two plans meet — a rebuild selling a veteran to a contender for youth or picks, or a contender paying a rebuild in futures for a producer. Every offer is checked for whether a person would accept it, not just whether the values add up: the side getting the best player pays a premium for consolidating, you can't buy someone far above the best chip you own, and every player you send has to be someone who'd actually crack their lineup. A rebuild is never handed back an older player than it sends, and a contender is never handed a player who is out for the season. The percentage on each card is whether that manager would actually want it — their window, whether it lands in a room they are thin at, what it costs them, and how often they trade at all.alternatives — you'd do one of them9.9Trade market: Very active14 completed trades since July — about 2.3 per team. Managers here deal, so an aggressive offer will get a real look.
BetaTrade ideas are in beta and can be wrong — use them as a starting point, not as advice to follow blindly. Found a bad one? Screenshot it and send it to matthewbarghout on Discord — every real example is how we fix the logic.
YOUR BOARDCMCs ACLrarely trades
Ask for Emeka Egbuka by name — CMCs ACL can part with him, and your board says the market is still behind on him.
- Emeka Egbuka is on your BUY board — your read: “Great reload asset… low expectations short term.”
- This manager rarely trades, so lead with your best realistic offer rather than a lowball.
⇄They receive
2028 1st (Cedar Lake Falcons)Pick
You receive
Emeka EgbukaWR
Fair offerA straight swap at the same tier, priced at the going rate — the easiest kind of offer to get a yes on.A one-for-one at the same tier — the easiest kind of deal to get answered, and the shape the market prices most reliably. Offers are built smallest-first, and every player going out has to be someone who would actually crack their lineup — filler they'd bench is what makes a trade offer get ignored.
60% likelyWorth sending: they are rebuilding and this is mostly draft capital, which is exactly what they are collecting, and this manager rarely trades.
What Changes Your Window?
The gap between where you are and the next window, sized in the thing that actually moves it — points of starting-lineup production, or the value you'd need to add.You are 12.8 PPG of starting-lineup production away from a top-third lineup. One more starting-calibre tight end — bought with the bench value you already hold — flips you to CONTEND without touching your core.
Draft capitalEvery future pick you hold. A pick is priced as the player it is expected to become, so where it lands in the round is most of what it is worth — and where it lands is set by how the roster that owes it is projected to finish, not by how good they look on paper. You project to finish 9th of 12, so your own picks land early in each round.
13 picks over the next 2 drafts — about 2.3× what an average roster holds.
#1 / 12
Pick value rankEvery pick added up at this league's prices, ranked against the other 11 rosters.
13
Total picks
2.3×
League averageYour picks' combined value against what an average roster in this league holds. 1.0× is exactly average.
2027 draft8 picksProjected order
1.041st roundearly2027 1st · 1.04Worth about the dynasty #48 player.
1.091st roundlateAcquired2027 1st (Chikks) · 1.09Worth about the dynasty #71 player. From Chikks, who project to finish 4th of 12 — a late one.
1.121st roundlateAcquired2027 1st (Cmonman05) · 1.12Worth about the dynasty #84 player. From Cmonman05, who project to finish 1st of 12 — a late one.
2.042nd roundearly2027 2nd · 2.04Worth about the dynasty #141 player.
2.072nd roundmidAcquired2027 2nd (ClutchNorris24) · 2.07Worth about the dynasty #153 player. From ClutchNorris24, who project to finish 6th of 12 — the middle of the round.
2.092nd roundlateAcquired2027 2nd (Chikks) · 2.09Worth about the dynasty #160 player. From Chikks, who project to finish 4th of 12 — a late one.
3.123rd roundlateAcquired2027 3rd (Cmonman05) · 3.12Worth about the dynasty #236 player. From Cmonman05, who project to finish 1st of 12 — a late one.
4.044th roundearly2027 4th · 4.04Worth about the dynasty #267 player.
2028 draft5 picksMid-round estimate
1.051st round~mid2028 1st · 1.05Worth about the dynasty #62 player. Two drafts out, so it is priced near the middle of the round — nobody's finish can be called that far ahead.
1.061st round~midAcquired2028 1st (Cedar Lake Falcons) · 1.06Worth about the dynasty #64 player. From Cedar Lake Falcons. Two drafts out, so it is priced near the middle of the round — nobody's finish can be called that far ahead.
2.052nd round~mid2028 2nd · 2.05Worth about the dynasty #153 player. Two drafts out, so it is priced near the middle of the round — nobody's finish can be called that far ahead.
3.053rd round~mid2028 3rd · 3.05Worth about the dynasty #225 player. Two drafts out, so it is priced near the middle of the round — nobody's finish can be called that far ahead.
4.054th round~mid2028 4th · 4.05Worth about the dynasty #277 player. Two drafts out, so it is priced near the middle of the round — nobody's finish can be called that far ahead.
Draft capital value
#1of 12
Your pick value ranks 1st in this league.
Picks by year
20278
20285
Top asset
1.04Your most valuable pick.
2027 1st roundearly
Worth about the dynasty #48 player.
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